To many people in the west, China is still a closed, rigid and brutal country behind the iron curtain. They believe anyone who dares to challenge the communist authority will be harshly punished. Such perception might be correct in the era of “cultural revolution” but is now outdated. China has become a country very diversified in ideology.
Following is an article that openly in display in the Chinese social media. The author is Zi Zhongyun, a lady scholar of 87 years old who served long in the Chinese foreign affair department and state run institutions.
She is famous for her explicit and sharp criticism of the Chinese communist government yet she is still active in her activities.
If you think this is only an isolated situation, you are wrong. There are numerous similar articles circulating in the Chinese social media such as WeChat everyday.
Introduction of this article does not mean to support or criticise to its arguments, rather it is an attempt of demonstrating the extent of ideological diversification in China.
China will be a very promising country if the reforms will be carrying on and accomplished. However I am not optimistic. Given persistence of a totalitarian political system, it is inevitable that the reforms will be halted in some stages down the track when those of privileged feel that their interests are being negatively affected.
Serious political conflicts will break out due to escalation of the tension and result in showdown (among political strongmen) for the control of power. As to the anti-corruption campaign, no matter how many “big tigers” (high ranking officials) can be uncovered, I have no much confident in it so long as it is being conducted at present terms.
Without rule of law the moderate middle power would be destroyed
The most important issue for China is rule of law. Otherwise the healthy civic power in opposition to the corrupted bureaucratic system would be suppressed as a by-product in the anti-corruption campaign.
Under the existing totalitarian political framework, the anti-corruption campaign is simply an attempt aiming at energizing the existing bureaucratic system through traditional purification ways. It will not work as corrupted officials will be emerging endlessly in the current political ecosystem.
But on the other hand, by taking advantage of the campaign of anti-corruption, the authority will easily smash the moderate civil power that is critical of the government positions at times. Without a vigorous system of rule of law, those outspoken intellectuals will be defenseless in face of the charges alleged by the government. In my opinion return of the “Cultural Revolution”, which is a hot issue at the present, is unlikely but reappearance of “anti-right” movement is possible.
If the anti-corruption campaign would effectively destroy the moderate middle power which is willing to coordinate with the authority in advancing a peaceful transition of the Chinese society, then what will be leftover?
The remaining will be tyrants at top, corrupted and malicious officials in the middle and foolish mass at the bottom. The situation could become explosive as foolish mass are likely turning into gangsters and mobsters. Sensing of no security, people who can afford will flee to abroad and the nation will be hollowed from within. I agree with a comment made by professor Sun Liping “ what China faces is not the danger of internal rise up and riot; but the decay from within.”
Such decay is happening. As a proof, deterioration in the social value system has made the things unacceptable in the past becoming normal in these days. For example, an examiner was beaten up for his rightful action of confiscating cheating tools from the students participated in the national examination for college entrance. Those responsible for the brutal behaviour were the parents of the students who blamed the examiner of depriving their children of the opportunity in access to universities. To them cheating is a fair thing to do in the context that those young people of privileged background will secure their opportunities through connections anyway.
Without rule of law, people could reach a conclusion that benefits could be sought from doing outrageous things. This will lead to smash of all the virtues vital to a harmonious and productive society. A society will be hopeless when people do not believe in hard work and honesty.
Avoidance of a hawkish foreign policy
China’s foreign policy is another area makes me nervures. Primarily the Chinese militarily has a disproportionate level of influence over the Chinese foreign policy.
The ultimate goal of diplomacy is to avoid war and allow issues between nations to be resolved through negotiations. Currently in China, nationalism is often to be stirred up along with the advocate of military solution to the border disputes.
Border dispute s are complicated matters. Ordinary people do not have the access to facts but are likely to be misled by nationalistic media.
Diplomacy is complex, sensitive and delicate. I hope China can be rational and allow professional diplomats to handle the foreign affair. Nowadays professional diplomats are often afraid of speaking the truth and reporting the real situation. Having worked in this area before I know the problem is quite serious.
The major crisis in the Chinese foreign affairs can be triggered by an accidental and insignificant events. It could become dangerous if China and its opponents are both being hijacked with strong nationalistic sentiment. China should be careful with its assertiveness. After the Korean War, Mao Zedong at least did not take adventurist position in foreign policy. By the 1960s, China was isolated and Mao made propaganda and placed the nation in war footing every day. But in reality he did not dare to venture any attacks but opened up Sino-U.S. relations.
Nowadays hyperbole in China is very high. I hope China should not regard itself as a superpower capable of replacing the US and put an adventurist foreign policy in practice. This is at least an important expectation on the Chinese top leadership.
Rise of civic power
I have no hope that meaningful breakthroughs will be made by the top Chinese leadership. Instead I feel confident in the rise of civic power as ideological liberation in China has been very active. The current Chinese society has become highly diversified in terms of ideology with the emergence of ultra right and ultra left. Some very positive concepts and theories have been spreading across the nation swiftly.
For example, the articles I wrote a few years ago was often considered to be outrageous and deviant. But nowadays my idea is increasingly being accepted by people including the officials from the government.
So if there is such a change similar to the fall of Soviet Union happening in China, I believe there will not be tens of millions of party members standing out to defend the corrupted and totalitarian regime.
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